Abstract

The UK Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme is the government's primary tool for financing offshore wind. Between 2015 and 2022 it cut offshore wind strike prices by 67%, yet in September 2023 it attracted no bids at all. This article argues that three structural gaps in the scheme's legal framework account for that outcome: administrative strike-price discretion without independent validation or published reasons; mid-cycle eligibility changes without grandfathering for advanced projects; and instability in the standard terms lenders rely on. These gaps raise debt-service and equity-return requirements and distort bid/no-bid decisions, compounded by the absence of a standard-form Tripartite Direct Agreement with the LCCC. The article then assesses the limits of legal protection Wednesbury review and legitimate expectations in domestic public law, and the Energy Charter Treaty's fair and equitable treatment standard following the UK's withdrawal on 27 April 2025 distinguishing the UK's prospective calibration from the retroactive subsidy cuts behind over EUR 8 billion in claims against Spain. Drawing on the German EEG grandfathering model and the Dutch SDE++ pricing framework, it proposes four reforms, each with a statutory vehicle, responsible institution, and timeline.

This paper will be part of the OGEL Special Issue on "Clean Energy Projects and Risk Mitigation". More information here www.ogel.org/news.asp?key=841